Data Methodology

USDA Production, Supply & Distribution

The USDA's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Online database is the definitive public source for agricultural commodity supply and demand balances. It is maintained by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and covers 160+ countries going back decades.

What we track

We ingest country-level and world-aggregate data for green coffee, covering production, imports, exports, domestic consumption, and ending stocks. From these we derive the stock-to-use ratio and supply/demand balance.

Release schedule

USDA publishes PSD updates monthly, typically in the second week of the month as part of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Our pipeline checks daily and loads new data as soon as it's published.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is published weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It shows net positions of large traders in regulated futures markets and is the primary public indicator of speculative positioning in agricultural commodities.

What we track

We use the Disaggregated Futures-Only report for Coffee C, with positions as of Tuesday close published the following Friday. Trader categories are: Managed Money (hedge funds, CTAs), Producer/Merchant (commercial hedgers), Swap Dealers, Other Reportables, and Non-Reportable (small speculators).

COT Index

The COT Index normalises the managed money net position to a 0–100 scale over a trailing window (we publish both 26-week and 52-week). A reading near 0 means managed money is at its most bearish extreme over the window; near 100 means maximum bullish positioning — an RSI for speculative sentiment.

Coffee Futures Prices (KC=F & RC=F)

We track both the Coffee C contract (KC=F) — the global benchmark for Arabica coffee, traded on ICE Futures U.S. — and the London Robusta contract (RC=F), traded on ICE Futures Europe. Both prices are quoted in US cents per pound and represent front-month continuous contracts.

What we track

Daily OHLCV data (Open, High, Low, Close, Adjusted Close, Volume) going back to the early 1970s. Derived metrics include daily return %, 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and rolling 52-week highs and lows.

ICE Certified Warehouse Stocks

ICE Futures U.S. publishes daily reports of certified warehouse stocks for Coffee C — physical bags of Arabica that have been graded and stamped as meeting ICE delivery specifications, making them eligible for delivery against a futures contract at expiration.

Why it matters

Certified stocks are the physical backing of the futures market. When certified stocks fall sharply while open interest is high, shorts cannot easily deliver physical coffee — creating a squeeze dynamic that can drive sharp price rallies. Tracking certified stocks alongside COT positioning is essential for understanding delivery risk.

What we track

Total certified bags, pending-grading bags, and derived metrics including week-over-week change, 30-day rolling average, 52-week high, and drawdown from peak. Updated daily after market close.

Update Schedule & Limitations

Known limitations

• USDA PSD revisions can extend back multiple years — treat historical figures as estimates subject to revision.
• Futures prices carry a ~15-minute delay from the exchange and may have minor adjustments at roll dates.
• COT data reflects Tuesday close positions; the market may move significantly before Friday's release.
• ICE warehouse stocks do not distinguish between origins — port-level granularity is not available here.

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